Direction Accuracy
49.08%
165,953 qualified evaluations
DATA LIVE
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Measured AI forecast quality
Analyze historical forecast accuracy, prediction errors, interval coverage, model versions and asset-level reliability across the tracked stock universe.
Select the evaluation period and minimum number of evaluations required for each stock.
Direction Accuracy
49.08%
165,953 qualified evaluations
MAPE
4.54%
Mean absolute percentage error across qualified forecasts.
Interval Coverage
74.90%
Share of actual prices that fell inside the forecast interval.
Forecast Bias
-2.39
Average signed forecast error. Values near zero indicate less systematic bias.
Qualified Assets
994
100.00% of evaluated assets qualify.
Model Versions
1
20,869 evaluated forecast runs
Direction accuracy and mean absolute percentage error grouped by evaluation month.
Direction accuracy and forecast interval coverage for each prediction horizon.
Evaluated Assets
994
Assets with at least one completed forecast evaluation in the selected period.
Qualified Assets
994
Assets that meet the selected minimum evaluation count.
Qualification Rate
100.00%
Share of evaluated assets that qualify for model-quality metrics.
Forecast Runs
20,869
Evaluated forecast runs represented in the selected period.
Model Versions
1
Distinct model and version combinations represented in evaluations.
Number of qualified evaluations available for each prediction horizon.
Historical interval coverage and mean interval width across all available forecast horizons.
First Evaluation
Aug 08, 2026, 06:44 AM UTC
Earliest forecast evaluation included in the selected period.
Latest Evaluation
Aug 20, 2026, 04:33 AM UTC
Most recent forecast evaluation included in the selected period.
Evaluation Count
165,953
Total qualified forecast evaluations used for the aggregated metrics.
Mean Absolute Error
8.26
Average absolute price error across qualified evaluations.
MAPE
4.54%
RMSE
19.86
Root mean squared forecast error across qualified evaluations.
Forecast Bias
-2.39
Average signed forecast error across qualified evaluations.
Direction Accuracy
49.08%
Share of forecasts where predicted direction matched actual direction.
Interval Coverage
74.90%
Share of actual closes that landed inside the forecast interval.
Mean Interval Width
12.84%
Average relative width of the forecast interval across qualified evaluations.
Metrics use evaluations recorded during the selected time window.
Compare measured forecast quality across model and version combinations.
| Model | Version | Evaluations | Accuracy | MAPE | MAE | RMSE | Bias | Coverage | Interval Width |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| amazon/chronos-2 | latest | 165,953 | 49.08% | 4.54% | 8.26 | 19.86 | -2.39 | 74.90% | 12.84% |
Highest historical direction accuracy among qualified stocks.
Mean absolute percentage error across qualified forecast evaluations.
Moderna, Inc. Common Stock
MRNA
XNAS
80.84%
167 evaluations
MAPE 8.05%
Lowest historical direction accuracy among qualified stocks.