Reference Close
$287.36
Reference: Aug 19, 2026
DATA LIVE
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Last closing price
$287.36
Reference Close
$287.36
Reference: Aug 19, 2026
Current Trend
Bearish
Directional assessment of the current market
Market Phase
Distribution
Analysis identified current structural phase
Historical Model Reliability
59/100 – Medium
Historical reliability based on completed forecast evaluations. This is not the probability that the next forecast will be correct.
Model Investment Rating
Neutral Signal
Medium Term investment horizon
Risk Score
40/100
High forecast uncertainty
Latest completed forecast and scoring run
Essex Property Trust, Inc (ESS) has an overall score of 50/100 and an investment rating of Hold for a Medium Term horizon. The supplied trend is Bearish and the market phase is Distribution. Component scores are Forecast 49, Fundamental 51, Technical 30, Macro 55 and News 65. Forecast uncertainty is High at 40/100. Historical model reliability is Medium at 59/100. This index summarizes historical forecast performance and is not a probability that the next forecast will be correct.
amazon/chronos-2
latest
Aug 19, 2026
Investment horizon
Medium Term
ESS daily candlesticks and trading volume
Chronos median prediction, uncertainty quantiles and individual forecast points by horizon
Forecast Model
Chronos-2
amazon/chronos-2 · latest
Final Chronos P50
$286.00
Median prediction for H10
AI Price Target
$272.00
bearish scenario -5.35%
Final Forecast Range
$272.00 – $300.00
9.79% interval width around P50
Expected Upside
-5.35%
Based on the selected bearish scenario
Forecast Horizon
H10
Final target: Sep 02, 2026
ESS actual close, median prediction and P10–P90 range
Chronos quantiles by horizon
| Step | Target date | P10 | P50 | P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 20, 2026 -0.47% from reference | $280.00 | $286.00 | $292.00 |
| 2 | Aug 21, 2026 -0.47% from reference |
Derived scenario, direction and uncertainty metrics
P10 Downside Scenario
$272.00
-5.35%P50 Median Scenario
$286.00
-0.47%P90 Upside Scenario
$300.00
+4.40%Median Direction
Bearish
Median forecast ends below the reference close
Final Interval Width
9.79%
P10–P90 range relative to final P50
Uncertainty Expansion
+5.59 pp
Change in interval width from first to final step
Median Forecast Range
$286.00 – $286.00
Lowest and highest P50 across the horizon
Score composition, price targets and qualitative AI assessment
Qualitative assessment from the latest completed run
Executive Summary
Essex Property Trust, Inc (ESS) has an overall score of 50/100 and an investment rating of Hold for a Medium Term horizon. The supplied trend is Bearish and the market phase is Distribution. Component scores are Forecast 49, Fundamental 51, Technical 30, Macro 55 and News 65. Forecast uncertainty is High at 40/100. Historical model reliability is Medium at 59/100. This index summarizes historical forecast performance and is not a probability that the next forecast will be correct.
Distribution
Medium Term
High
Unavailable
amazon/chronos-2
Aug 20, 2026
Bearish, expected and bullish scenarios
Bearish
Selected$272.00
Expected
$286.00
Bullish
$300.00
Expected upside
-0.47%
Selected scenario upside
-5.35%
Deterministic scoring components. Historical model reliability is shown separately.
50
Overall
Forecast
Chronos prediction strength
Fundamental
Company fundamentals
Main opportunities, risks and factors behind the current assessment
Potential positive catalysts
Dividend Strength: Essex Property Trust is recommended as the better buy due to its higher dividend per share ($10.36 vs $1.32), 32-year dividend growth history, stronger core FFO per share, and higher net margins (35% vs 27%)
Factors that could weaken the thesis
Elevated average forecast uncertainty: The average forecast interval width exceeds 5 percent of the latest close.
Important drivers of the score
Negative median return expectation: Chronos projects a -0.47% median return at the final forecast horizon.
Historical forecast accuracy, bias, uncertainty and performance by horizon
Evaluations
167
Number of completed forecast comparisons
Mean Absolute Error
$4.45
Average absolute difference between P50 and actual close
Mean Absolute Percentage Error
1.56%
Average percentage error; lower values are better
Root Mean Square Error
$5.72
Penalizes larger forecast errors more strongly
Direction Accuracy
52.69%
Share of forecasts that predicted the correct direction
Interval Coverage
87.43%
Actual closes that fell inside the P10–P90 range
Mean Forecast Bias
$2.46
Positive means forecasts were high on average
Mean Interval Width
6.78%
Average width of the P10–P90 uncertainty interval
ESS forecast accuracy and systematic model drift by prediction horizon
Chronos quantiles compared with realized closing prices for horizon 1
P50 minus actual closing price for horizon 1
Mean bias
-$0.33
MAE
+$2.72
Positive: forecast was too high
Negative: forecast was too low
Near zero: close agreement
How forecast quality changes as the prediction horizon grows
| Horizon | Count | MAE | MAPE | RMSE | Direction | Coverage | Bias | Interval width |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
H1 Step 1 1-day horizon | 21 | $2.72 | Best0.95% | $4.09 | 52.38% | 85.71% | -$0.33 | 3.47% |
H2 Step 2 2-day horizon | 20 | $3.46 |
Individual historical predictions compared with realized closing prices
| Run | Reference | Target | Horizon | P10 | P50 | P90 | Actual | Drift | Absolute error | APE | Direction | Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#20201 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 18, 2026 $283.71 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H1 | $278.00 | $284.00 | $288.00 | $287.36 | -$3.36 | $3.36 | 1.17% | Correct | Covered |
#19209 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 17, 2026 $283.06 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H2 | $276.00 | $284.00 | $290.00 | $287.36 | -$3.36 | $3.36 | 1.17% | Correct | Covered |
#18216 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 14, 2026 $287.52 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H3 | $278.00 | $288.00 | $294.00 | $287.36 | +$0.64 | $0.64 | 0.22% | Wrong | Covered |
#17222 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 13, 2026 $287.39 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H4 | $276.00 | $286.00 | $296.00 | $287.36 | -$1.36 | $1.36 | 0.47% | Correct | Covered |
#16228 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 12, 2026 $281.27 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H5 | $270.00 | $280.00 | $290.00 | $287.36 | -$7.36 | $7.36 | 2.56% | Wrong | Covered |
#15234 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 11, 2026 $282.46 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H6 | $270.00 | $282.00 | $292.00 | $287.36 | -$5.36 | $5.36 | 1.87% | Wrong | Covered |
#14240 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 10, 2026 $283.21 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H7 | $270.00 | $284.00 | $294.00 | $287.36 | -$3.36 | $3.36 | 1.17% | Correct | Covered |
#324 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 06, 2026 $285.12 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H9 | $270.00 | $284.00 | $298.00 | $287.36 | -$3.36 | $3.36 | 1.17% | Wrong | Covered |
#5206 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 05, 2026 $288.04 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H10 | $272.00 | $288.00 | $302.00 | $287.36 | +$0.64 | $0.64 | 0.22% | Correct | Covered |
#19209 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 17, 2026 $283.06 | Aug 18, 2026 Actual: Aug 18, 2026 | H1 | $278.00 | $284.00 | $288.00 | $283.71 | +$0.29 | $0.29 | 0.10% | Correct | Covered |
Showing 1–10 of 167 rows
Changes in scores, ratings and analyses across completed forecast runs
Evolution of ESS scores across completed forecast runs
Current values compared with the previous run and historical average
Latest run: Aug 19, 2026
Overall
50
/100Previous
48
History avg.
50.2
Forecast
49
/100Previous
50
History avg.
49.8
Fundamental
51
/100Previous
51
History avg.
50.4
Technical
30
/100Previous
22
History avg.
39.3
Macro
55
/100Previous
55
History avg.
60.1
News
65
/100Previous
65
History avg.
56.1
Score momentum and changes across completed runs
Overall Score Momentum
50
/100-6.0 pts
Since Jul 20, 2026
Historical Average
50.2
Overall score
Score Range
46.0 – 56.0
Minimum to maximum
Score Volatility
Standard deviation of the overall score
3.1 pts
Strongest Component
Previous completed scoring and AI-analysis runs
Showing 1–10 of 22 analyses
Technical metadata and coverage of the displayed dataset
Technical context for the current stock detail dataset
Asset ID
3818
ESS
Forecast run ID
21193
completed
Forecast model
amazon/chronos-2
latest
Reference timestamp
Aug 19, 2026
Reference close: $287.36
OHLCV candles
1255
Aug 19, 2021 – Aug 19, 2026
Forecast points
10
Maximum horizon: 10
Historical analyses
22
Completed historical scoring runs
Evaluation rows
167
Last evaluated: Aug 20, 2026
Run status
completed
Run started
Aug 20, 2026
| $280.00 |
| $286.00 |
| $292.00 |
| 3 | Aug 24, 2026 -0.47% from reference | $278.00 | $286.00 | $294.00 |
| 4 | Aug 25, 2026 -0.47% from reference | $276.00 | $286.00 | $294.00 |
| 5 | Aug 26, 2026 -0.47% from reference | $276.00 | $286.00 | $296.00 |
| 6 | Aug 27, 2026 -0.47% from reference | $276.00 | $286.00 | $296.00 |
| 7 | Aug 28, 2026 -0.47% from reference | $274.00 | $286.00 | $298.00 |
| 8 | Aug 31, 2026 -0.47% from reference | $274.00 | $286.00 | $298.00 |
| 9 | Sep 01, 2026 -0.47% from reference | $272.00 | $286.00 | $298.00 |
| 10 | Sep 02, 2026 -0.47% from reference | $272.00 | $286.00 | $300.00 |
ESS median prediction with lower and upper forecast quantiles
P10: lower forecast boundary
P50: Chronos median forecast
P90: upper forecast boundary
Largest Median Step
0.00%
Largest P50 move occurs at H2
Technical
Price and market structure
Macro
Macroeconomic environment
News
News and sentiment signals
Composite Score
Weighted result of the scoring components
| $4.84 |
60.00% |
| 80.00% |
| $0.42 |
| 4.51% |
H3 Step 3 3-day horizon | 19 | $3.56 | 1.24% | $4.74 | 47.37% | 84.21% | $0.75 | 5.48% |
H4 Step 4 4-day horizon | 18 | $3.78 | 1.32% | $4.94 | Best66.67% | 83.33% | $1.76 | 6.40% |
H5 Step 5 5-day horizon | 17 | $4.64 | 1.63% | $5.64 | 35.29% | 88.24% | $2.31 | 7.06% |
H6 Step 6 6-day horizon | 16 | $4.80 | 1.68% | $6.01 | 50.00% | 87.50% | $2.84 | 7.62% |
H7 Step 7 7-day horizon | 15 | $5.05 | 1.77% | $6.16 | 60.00% | 93.33% | $4.04 | 8.11% |
H8 Step 8 8-day horizon | 14 | $5.92 | 2.08% | $7.00 | 57.14% | 85.71% | $5.50 | 8.83% |
H9 Step 9 9-day horizon | 14 | $6.29 | 2.21% | $7.14 | 42.86% | 100.00% | $5.11 | 9.61% |
H10 Step 10 10-day horizon | 13 | $6.11 | 2.15% | $7.26 | 53.85% | 92.31% | $5.36 | 9.91% |
Lower MAE, MAPE and RMSE are better.
Higher direction accuracy is better.
Coverage must be interpreted together with interval width.
News
65/100
Most Improved
News
+15 pts
Largest Decline
Technical
-42.0 pts
Current Risk
Latest deterministic risk score
40/100
Latest Assessment