Reference Close
$104.25
Reference: Aug 19, 2026
DATA LIVE
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Last closing price
$104.25
Reference Close
$104.25
Reference: Aug 19, 2026
Current Trend
Bullish
Directional assessment of the current market
Market Phase
Accumulation
Analysis identified current structural phase
Historical Model Reliability
56/100 – Medium
Historical reliability based on completed forecast evaluations. This is not the probability that the next forecast will be correct.
Model Investment Rating
Neutral Signal
Medium Term investment horizon
Risk Score
100/100
Very High forecast uncertainty
Latest completed forecast and scoring run
Strategy Inc Common Stock Class A (MSTR) has an overall score of 49/100 and an investment rating of Hold for a Medium Term horizon. The supplied trend is Bullish and the market phase is Accumulation. Component scores are Forecast 45, Fundamental 48, Technical 71, Macro 55 and News 30. Forecast uncertainty is Very High at 100/100. Historical model reliability is Medium at 56/100. This index summarizes historical forecast performance and is not a probability that the next forecast will be correct.
amazon/chronos-2
latest
Aug 19, 2026
Investment horizon
Medium Term
MSTR daily candlesticks and trading volume
Chronos median prediction, uncertainty quantiles and individual forecast points by horizon
Forecast Model
Chronos-2
amazon/chronos-2 · latest
Final Chronos P50
$102.50
Median prediction for H10
AI Price Target
$129.00
bullish scenario +23.74%
Final Forecast Range
$82.50 – $129.00
45.37% interval width around P50
Expected Upside
+23.74%
Based on the selected bullish scenario
Forecast Horizon
H10
Final target: Sep 02, 2026
MSTR actual close, median prediction and P10–P90 range
Chronos quantiles by horizon
| Step | Target date | P10 | P50 | P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 20, 2026 -0.72% from reference | $95.50 | $103.50 | $112.00 |
| 2 | Aug 21, 2026 -0.24% from reference |
Derived scenario, direction and uncertainty metrics
P10 Downside Scenario
$82.50
-20.86%P50 Median Scenario
$102.50
-1.68%P90 Upside Scenario
$129.00
+23.74%Median Direction
Bearish
Median forecast ends below the reference close
Final Interval Width
45.37%
P10–P90 range relative to final P50
Uncertainty Expansion
+29.42 pp
Change in interval width from first to final step
Median Forecast Range
$102.00 – $104.00
Lowest and highest P50 across the horizon
Score composition, price targets and qualitative AI assessment
Qualitative assessment from the latest completed run
Executive Summary
Strategy Inc Common Stock Class A (MSTR) has an overall score of 49/100 and an investment rating of Hold for a Medium Term horizon. The supplied trend is Bullish and the market phase is Accumulation. Component scores are Forecast 45, Fundamental 48, Technical 71, Macro 55 and News 30. Forecast uncertainty is Very High at 100/100. Historical model reliability is Medium at 56/100. This index summarizes historical forecast performance and is not a probability that the next forecast will be correct.
Accumulation
Medium Term
Very High
Unavailable
amazon/chronos-2
Aug 20, 2026
Bearish, expected and bullish scenarios
Bearish
$82.50
Expected
$102.50
Bullish
Selected$129.00
Expected upside
-1.68%
Selected scenario upside
+23.74%
Deterministic scoring components. Historical model reliability is shown separately.
49
Overall
Forecast
Chronos prediction strength
Fundamental
Company fundamentals
Main opportunities, risks and factors behind the current assessment
Potential positive catalysts
Healthy balance sheet: Liquidity and leverage produce a balance-sheet score of 83/100.
Factors that could weaken the thesis
High average forecast uncertainty: The average forecast interval width exceeds 10 percent of the latest close.
Important drivers of the score
Negative median return expectation: Chronos projects a -1.68% median return at the final forecast horizon.
Historical forecast accuracy, bias, uncertainty and performance by horizon
Evaluations
167
Number of completed forecast comparisons
Mean Absolute Error
$3.70
Average absolute difference between P50 and actual close
Mean Absolute Percentage Error
3.81%
Average percentage error; lower values are better
Root Mean Square Error
$4.70
Penalizes larger forecast errors more strongly
Direction Accuracy
50.90%
Share of forecasts that predicted the correct direction
Interval Coverage
94.61%
Actual closes that fell inside the P10–P90 range
Mean Forecast Bias
-$1.28
Negative means forecasts were low on average
Mean Interval Width
24.49%
Average width of the P10–P90 uncertainty interval
MSTR forecast accuracy and systematic model drift by prediction horizon
Chronos quantiles compared with realized closing prices for horizon 1
P50 minus actual closing price for horizon 1
Mean bias
-$0.20
MAE
+$3.83
Positive: forecast was too high
Negative: forecast was too low
Near zero: close agreement
How forecast quality changes as the prediction horizon grows
| Horizon | Count | MAE | MAPE | RMSE | Direction | Coverage | Bias | Interval width |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
H1 Step 1 1-day horizon | 21 | $3.83 | 3.94% | $4.63 | 33.33% | 85.71% | -$0.20 | 12.73% |
H2 Step 2 2-day horizon | 20 | $3.20 | Best |
Individual historical predictions compared with realized closing prices
| Run | Reference | Target | Horizon | P10 | P50 | P90 | Actual | Drift | Absolute error | APE | Direction | Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#20490 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 18, 2026 $92.52 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H1 | $86.00 | $92.50 | $98.00 | $104.25 | -$11.75 | $11.75 | 11.27% | Wrong | Missed |
#19498 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 17, 2026 $97.68 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H2 | $90.50 | $96.00 | $103.50 | $104.25 | -$8.25 | $8.25 | 7.91% | Wrong | Missed |
#18505 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 14, 2026 $93.04 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H3 | $85.50 | $92.00 | $100.50 | $104.25 | -$12.25 | $12.25 | 11.75% | Wrong | Missed |
#17511 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 13, 2026 $97.10 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H4 | $87.00 | $95.50 | $105.00 | $104.25 | -$8.75 | $8.75 | 8.39% | Wrong | Covered |
#16517 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 12, 2026 $94.83 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H5 | $82.00 | $91.50 | $102.50 | $104.25 | -$12.75 | $12.75 | 12.23% | Wrong | Missed |
#15523 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 11, 2026 $96.09 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H6 | $84.00 | $95.00 | $106.50 | $104.25 | -$9.25 | $9.25 | 8.87% | Wrong | Covered |
#14529 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 10, 2026 $97.33 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H7 | $85.00 | $97.00 | $110.00 | $104.25 | -$7.25 | $7.25 | 6.95% | Wrong | Covered |
#613 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 06, 2026 $96.85 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H9 | $82.00 | $95.50 | $110.50 | $104.25 | -$8.75 | $8.75 | 8.39% | Wrong | Covered |
#8963 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 05, 2026 $98.37 | Aug 19, 2026 Actual: Aug 19, 2026 | H10 | $83.00 | $98.00 | $116.00 | $104.25 | -$6.25 | $6.25 | 6.00% | Wrong | Covered |
#19498 amazon/chronos-2 | Aug 17, 2026 $97.68 | Aug 18, 2026 Actual: Aug 18, 2026 | H1 | $90.50 | $96.00 | $102.00 | $92.52 | +$3.48 | $3.48 | 3.76% | Correct | Covered |
Showing 1–10 of 167 rows
Changes in scores, ratings and analyses across completed forecast runs
Evolution of MSTR scores across completed forecast runs
Current values compared with the previous run and historical average
Latest run: Aug 19, 2026
Overall
49
/100Previous
37
History avg.
41.4
Forecast
45
/100Previous
42
History avg.
42.0
Fundamental
48
/100Previous
48
History avg.
50.8
Technical
71
/100Previous
15
History avg.
29.4
Macro
55
/100Previous
55
History avg.
60.1
News
30
/100Previous
30
History avg.
28.8
Score momentum and changes across completed runs
Overall Score Momentum
49
/100+5 pts
Since Jul 20, 2026
Historical Average
41.4
Overall score
Score Range
36.0 – 49.0
Minimum to maximum
Score Volatility
Standard deviation of the overall score
3.0 pts
Strongest Component
Previous completed scoring and AI-analysis runs
Showing 1–10 of 22 analyses
Technical metadata and coverage of the displayed dataset
Technical context for the current stock detail dataset
Asset ID
7684
MSTR
Forecast run ID
21482
completed
Forecast model
amazon/chronos-2
latest
Reference timestamp
Aug 19, 2026
Reference close: $104.25
OHLCV candles
1255
Aug 19, 2021 – Aug 19, 2026
Forecast points
10
Maximum horizon: 10
Historical analyses
22
Completed historical scoring runs
Evaluation rows
167
Last evaluated: Aug 20, 2026
Run status
completed
Run started
Aug 20, 2026
| $95.00 |
| $104.00 |
| $116.00 |
| 3 | Aug 24, 2026 -0.72% from reference | $93.00 | $103.50 | $117.00 |
| 4 | Aug 25, 2026 -1.20% from reference | $91.00 | $103.00 | $118.50 |
| 5 | Aug 26, 2026 -1.20% from reference | $89.00 | $103.00 | $121.00 |
| 6 | Aug 27, 2026 -1.20% from reference | $88.00 | $103.00 | $122.00 |
| 7 | Aug 28, 2026 -1.68% from reference | $86.00 | $102.50 | $124.00 |
| 8 | Aug 31, 2026 -1.68% from reference | $84.50 | $102.50 | $126.00 |
| 9 | Sep 01, 2026 -2.16% from reference | $83.50 | $102.00 | $127.50 |
| 10 | Sep 02, 2026 -1.68% from reference | $82.50 | $102.50 | $129.00 |
MSTR median prediction with lower and upper forecast quantiles
P10: lower forecast boundary
P50: Chronos median forecast
P90: upper forecast boundary
Largest Median Step
+0.49%
Largest P50 move occurs at H10
Technical
Price and market structure
Macro
Macroeconomic environment
News
News and sentiment signals
Composite Score
Weighted result of the scoring components
| $4.27 |
60.00% |
| 85.00% |
| -$0.30 |
| 15.59% |
H3 Step 3 3-day horizon | 19 | $3.37 | 3.49% | $4.52 | 57.89% | 89.47% | -$0.77 | 18.06% |
H4 Step 4 4-day horizon | 18 | $3.48 | 3.58% | $4.39 | 55.56% | 100.00% | -$0.82 | 21.37% |
H5 Step 5 5-day horizon | 17 | $3.98 | 4.07% | $5.10 | 41.18% | 94.12% | -$1.81 | 24.82% |
H6 Step 6 6-day horizon | 16 | $3.58 | 3.70% | $4.34 | 50.00% | 100.00% | -$1.28 | 27.74% |
H7 Step 7 7-day horizon | 15 | $3.91 | 4.02% | $4.77 | 53.33% | 100.00% | -$1.96 | 30.54% |
H8 Step 8 8-day horizon | 14 | $3.99 | 4.14% | $4.96 | 57.14% | 100.00% | -$1.70 | 33.32% |
H9 Step 9 9-day horizon | 14 | $4.35 | 4.46% | $5.24 | 42.86% | 100.00% | -$2.49 | 35.85% |
H10 Step 10 10-day horizon | 13 | $3.58 | 3.64% | $4.97 | Best61.54% | 100.00% | -$2.66 | 37.69% |
Lower MAE, MAPE and RMSE are better.
Higher direction accuracy is better.
Coverage must be interpreted together with interval width.
Technical
71/100
Most Improved
Technical
+35 pts
Largest Decline
Macro
-7.0 pts
Current Risk
Latest deterministic risk score
100/100
Latest Assessment